Authorship：Corresponding author   Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (international conference proceedings)   Publisher：International Institute of Applied Informatics  

This study examines the effects of ambiguity and uncertainty on organizational decision-making using an agent-based simulation framework. The model integrates hyperbolic discounting to capture shifts in decision-makers’ preferences from long-to short-term orientations over time. Ambiguity is defined as unclear organizational goals and decision criteria, whereas uncertainty refers to unpredictable environmental changes. The simulation showed that uncertainty strongly reduces decision efficiency, whereas ambiguity degrades decision quality. The results highlight how excessive ambiguity and uncertainty can lead to organizational resource inefficiencies. Specifically, I found that situations with high ambiguity and low uncertainty produced the least resource-efficient outcomes than situations with both high ambiguity and uncertainty. This study emphasizes the need to design decision processes that consider environmental complexity and recommends further empirical validation.

DOI： 10.52731/lbds.v005.386

CiNii Research

Authorship：Corresponding author   Publishing type：Research paper (international conference proceedings)  

This paper was presented at ISPIM Connects Osaka – Connecting and Empowering Society, Osaka, Japan on 2-4 December 2024.
Event Proceedings: ISBN 978-952-65069-7-5

File： A Study of Organizational Decision-Making in Fuzzy Front End.pdf

Authorship：Lead author,　Corresponding author   Language：Japanese   Publisher：Japan Society for Research Policy and Innovation Management  

<p>The purpose of this research is to clarify the decision-making processes and influential factors of organizations. Human beings make decisions to avoid bounded rationality, however, decision failures are repeated even in organizations. Recently, research of behavioral economics reveals individual anomalies gradually. Hyperbolic discounting means a subjective time discounting rate that tends to decrease from the near future to the distant future. And explain the irrational human behavior of preferring short-term utility at the expense of long-term utility. In this paper, we propose a Double Garbage Can Model, which is an extension of the Garbage Can Model, which is a collective decision-making model under ambiguity, and simulate the influence of individuals with hyperbolic discounting on collective decision-making. As a result, hyperbolic discounting suggests a negative impact that can lead to collective decision-making that prioritizes short-term profits, while also suggesting a positive impact such as avoiding situations where nothing can be decided.</p>

DOI： 10.20801/jsrpim.39.2_200

CiNii Research

Authorship：Lead author  

Authorship：Lead author  

Language：Japanese   Publisher：九州大学科学技術イノベーション政策教育研究センター  

本稿では、ゴミ箱モデルを拡張した Double Garbage Can Model を構築し、双曲割引傾向を持つメンバーの存在が組織的な意思決定に及ぼす影響を明らかにする。双曲割引とは、近い将来から遠い将来にかけて低減する傾向を持つ主観的時間割引率を意味し、長期的な効用を犠牲にして短期的な効用を選好する非合理な行動を説明する行動経済学の概念である。シミュレーションの結果、双曲性を持つメンバーの存在は目先の利益を優先する組織的意思決定をもたらし、その傾向はあいまいな状況下で高まるが、組織には個人の持つ双曲性を抑制する効果もあることが示された。

CiNii Research

Authorship：Lead author  

Authorship：Lead author  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Presentation type：Symposium, workshop panel (nominated)  

Presentation type：Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (invited, special)  

Venue：九州大学西新プラザ  

概要：人間は計算処理能力や認知能力に限界があるため、組織化を通じて個人を超える合理性を実現してきた。
しかし、組織化しても不合理な意思決定により企業などの組織が社会にネガティブな影響を与えることは少なくない。
こうした状況は現代社会における不確実性の高まりにより一層顕著になっており、企業が日々直面する意思決定はますます困難を極める状況にある。
一方、個人が合理性から逸脱する行動（アノマリー）については、行動経済学の分野で研究が進んでいる。
特に、当初は将来の利益を選好していた個人が、目先の利益が目前に迫ると選好を変え、目先の利益を優先する現象は「双曲割引」として知られており、流動性が高まる現代の組織における意思決定にも大きな影響を与えている可能性がある。
私はこれまでの実務経験を通じても組織の不合理な意思決定と個人の選好が関連していると考え、組織の意思決定研究を段階的に発展させてきた。
そこで今回の講演では、個人の双曲割引を組織の意思決定に組み入れた最新のマルチエージェントシミュレーションモデルの成果を含め、これまでの研究・キャリアの歩みを報告させていただきたい。

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

Language：English   Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

This study examines the effects of ambiguity and uncertainty on organizational decision-making using an agent-based simulation framework. The model integrates hyperbolic discounting to capture shifts in decision-makers’ preferences from long- to short-term orientations over time. Ambiguity is defined as unclear organizational goals and decision criteria, whereas uncertainty refers to unpredictable environmental changes. The simulation showed that uncertainty strongly reduces decision efficiency, whereas ambiguity degrades decision quality. The results highlight how excessive ambiguity and uncertainty can lead to organizational resource inefficiencies. Specifically, we found that situations with high ambiguity and low uncertainty produced the least resource-efficient outcomes than situations with both high ambiguity and uncertainty. This study emphasizes the need to design decision processes that consider environmental complexity and recommends further empirical validation.

Venue：熊本大学  

Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

This study empirically examined the mechanisms by which organizational decision-making under unstable situations becomes more irrational, from the perspectives of organizational structure, environmental factors, decision-making foundations, and interpersonal foundations. A questionnaire survey of 600 former leaders in Japan was conducted, asking them to recall their experiences of organizational decision-making under unstable situations. Factor analysis and covariance structure analysis were conducted on factors such as "high-functioning decision-making foundations," "formal and exclusive organizational environments," and "respectful interpersonal foundations." Results indicated that organizational environments with strong formalism and exclusivity exacerbated irrationality (lack of conviction and ad hoc behavior), particularly in hierarchical structures. On the other hand, flat organizational structures and the existence of high-functioning decision-making foundations were confirmed to suppress irrationality. While interpersonal foundations did not show a direct effect, their role in strengthening high-functioning foundations was suggested. These findings suggest that system and process design and flexible organizational change are important for improving the rationality of organizational decision-making.